If you spend any time at all reading about online casino games and gambling in casinos, you’ll encounter an expression—“the house edge.”

• Calculate House Edge Craps
• House Edge Craps

Not only do you have to demonstrate an influence over the dice outcomes, but that influence needs to exceed the house edge of those bets on the craps table. For example; if you appear to toss more 4 or 10s in your practice sessions and analysis shows that your controlled toss creates a 3% positive influence on those numbers that’s great! A craps player who makes sucker bets is facing a house edge higher than 0.8%. A video poker player who is just guessing rather than using a strategy card is likewise getting worse odds. This doesn't apply to games that have no strategy, like roulette and slot machines, where you generally get the same odds no matter how you play.

You’ll see writers explain that blackjack house edge is the lowest in the casino, and that the slots have the worst.

You’ll see them mention that some of the bets at the craps table have a house edge of less than 2%, while other bets at the craps table have a house edge of more than 16%.

But what is the house edge in a casino game and how does it work?

This site covers some similar concepts as they relate to the math of sports betting, but the casinos’ house edge works slightly differently.

Some Probability Background that Matters

You can’t understand the house edge if you don’t understand some of the basics of probability.

Probability is just a mathematical way to measure how likely something is to happen.

When a weatherman says there’s a 50% chance of rain, he’s using probability (as well as meteorology) to express that likelihood.

And most people have an intuitive understand of probability when it’s stated as a percentage, because we use it all the time.

If you paid attention in 8^th grade math, you probably already know that a percentage is just another way of expressing a fraction, and that’s all a probability is—a fraction.
To determine the probability of something happening, you just look at the number of ways it could happen and divide it by the total number of possible events.

Since there are 6 possible outcomes, and since only one of those outcomes is a 6, the probability of rolling a 6 is 1/6.

You can convert that to a percentage of 16.67%.

You can also convert it to “odds format,” which just compares the number of ways it can’t happen with the number of ways it can. The odds of rolling a 6 on a 6-sided die are 5 to 1.

Once you have a basic understanding of probability, you can move on to the next step, which is determining the house edge of a bet.

What Is the House Edge and Why Does It Matter?

Every bet has a payout if you win and an amount you lose if you lose. This is often the same amount, or even money.

In other words, if you bet $100 on a hand of blackjack and win, you usually win $100.

If you lose, you usually lose $100.

That’s called even money.

(And some bets in blackjack result in bigger winnings, and you sometimes have the option of surrendering, which means you only lose half your stake. But that’s a complication that doesn’t help you understand the house edge, so I’m going to save that discussion for another blog post.)

A bet’s payout can also be expressed using odds, though.

An even-money bet pays off at 1 to 1.

A bet that pays off at 5 to 1 is also possible—if you win, you get 5 units, but if you lose, you only lose 1 unit.

In the die-rolling probability example I used above, if you have a payout of 5 to 1, you’re playing a game with no house edge.

That’s because in the long run, you’ll win as much money as you lose.

But suppose I reduced the payout for rolling a 6 to 4 to 1?

You can use statistics to determine an average amount you’ll lose per bet in this situation.

You assume 6 statistically perfect rolls of the die. This means you’ll win once and lose 5 times.

If you’re betting $100 every time, you’ll have a single win of $400 along with 5 losses of $100 each, or a $500 total loss.

Your net loss after that is $100.

Since that’s a net loss of $100 over 6 bets, you’ve lost an average of $16.67 per bet.

That’s the same thing as lose 16.67% of each bet, and that percentage is the house edge.

There are other ways to arrive at that number, but that’s the easiest method I’ve seen used.

With every online casino game you play, the house pays off your bets at odds lower than the odds of winning. This results in a mathematical edge for the house.

That’s why casinos are profitable in the long run, even though every, a percentage of their customers go home with winnings in their pockets.

Probabilities—and the house edge—are always long-term phenomena. In the short run, anything can happen.

Individual online casino gamblers are always playing in the short term.

Online casinos are always playing in the long term.

If the House Has an Edge, Why Do People Still Play Casino Games?

So if, in the long run, the house can’t lose because of the math behind the games, why do people still play?

The answer is simpler than you think:

I have a friend who visits the casino at least once a week. He loses money on 4 out of 5 visits to the casino, but on one of those 5 visits every month, he comes home a winner.

He doesn’t care that he’s losing money hand over fist in the long run. He just wants to keep getting that buzz from his occasional wins.

The human brain is irrational, especially when it comes to gambling.

How the House Edge for Various Casino Games Compare

The house edge is only one factor that affects how much you’re going to lose when you’re gambling on online casino games. Other factors include how many bets you place per hour and how much you’re betting every time you place a wager.

That being said, if everything else is equal, you should play the casino games with the lowest house edge.

Keep in mind, too, that game conditions affect the house edge, too.

And, in fact, blackjack is a good place to start a discussion of the house edge for various casino games. It’s widely known that the house edge for blackjack is between 0.5% and 1%, but that number assumes that you’re making the optimal move in every situation. The average blackjack player is probably giving up 2% or so in mistakes.

Craps is a game where different bets have a different house edge. If you stick with the basic bets, pass and come, you face a house edge of 1.41%, which is relatively low. The more “exciting” wagers on the craps table come with a higher house edge.

Roulette comes in 2 main versions—single zero and double zero. The double zero version of roulette is predominant in the United States, and the roulette house edge for that game is 5.26%. By removing one of the zeroes, the online casino reduces the house edge to 2.70%.

Slot machines have a house edge that varies based on the PAR sheet for the game. (That’s the logic behind the game which determines the probability of getting various combinations of symbols and the payouts for those combinations.) You can find slot machines with a house as high as 35% or as low as 5%, but you never know what the number is.

Video poker machines look like slot machines, but they offer a better house edge—if you play the hands optimally. Depending on the pay table, the house edge for video poker can be as low as 0.5% or as high as 5% or 6%.

Conclusion

And those are the basics of the house edge as it pertains to casino games.

Now that you have an understanding of the probability behind casino games and how it affects your winnings and losses, are you going to be more or less likely to play casino games?

Are you going to change the amounts you bet or the games you play?

Let me know in the comments.

I’m writing a series of blog posts about casino games and the good and bad strategies for playing those games.

Craps is one of my favorite casino games, so I’ve been looking forward to writing this one.

And the beautiful thing about craps is that it’s a game of pure chance. The best strategy is just to choose the bets with the lowest edge for the house and have fun.

But I’ll have some things to say about some of the strategies and systems that other writers promote, too.

They’re mostly bad craps strategies.

Here’s the Only Craps Strategy You Need

When you’re dealing with an entirely random game – like craps – the only strategy that matters is choosing the bets with the lowest house edge and having fun.

I’ll have something to say about shooters and whether they have control over the outcomes later in this post, but for now, let’s just agree that games like craps are purely chance.

In other games that are entirely random, like slot machines, you don’t even really need to decide which bet to place. It’s chosen for you before you sit down.

When playing craps for real money, you have a handful of good bets you can make, but most of the bets on the table are bad. Just skip the bad bets, and you’re all set.

The Bests Bets at the Craps Table

The best bets at the craps table are the pass line bet and the don’t pass bet.

The come and don’t come bets are also great wagers.

I always advise casino gamblers to try to limit their gambling to games where the house edge is lower than 2% — preferably 1.5% or lower.

The house edge for the pass and come bets is the same, 1.41%, which means they qualify.

The house edge for the don’t pass and don’t come bets is even lower, 1.36%, but the 0.05% isn’t worth worrying about. Most people prefer to root for the shooter to succeed.

The other bet to think about at the craps table is the odds bet. This is a bet you can only place after making one of the 4 bets I already mentioned and when the shooter has set a point.

This is one of the only bets in the casino that has no house edge. It’s a break-even bet, but it can be expensive.

It can also drive the effective house edge on the money you have in action down to almost nothing.

Here’s how that works.

How the Odds Bet Changes the House Edge for the Better

If you’re betting on the pass line and the shooter sets a point, you can expect to lose $1.41 for every $100 you bet. That’s on average and in the long run.

If you’re playing at a casino that only allows you to place an odds bet at 1X the size of your pass line bet, you can put another $100 into action.

Your expected loss remains $1.41, though, which effectively cuts the house edge in half, from 1.41% to 0.71%.

If you’re able to bet 2X your original bet on the odds bet, you can lower that even further to 0.36%. (You have $300 in action, but your expected loss is still only $1.41.)

The more you’re able to bet on the odds bet, the lower the house edge for all the money you have in action becomes.

It’s clear why betting on the pass line and taking the most odds that you can is an effective strategy. With the odds bet, you can get the house edge in craps lower than 0.5% at least some of the time at the table, making it an even better game than blackjack.

And what’s more, you don’t have to memorize basic strategy to get the low house edge at craps.

You just need a big enough casino bankroll to make the right bets, and you need enough sense to avoid the bad bets at the table – of which there are many.

Any Strategy that Involves Placing ANY Other Bets at the Craps Table Is a BAD Craps Strategy

There’s a reason gambling experts measure bets according to their house edge. That’s because it’s the single best indicator of how good or bad a bet is.

The house edge is a statistical estimate of how much money you’ll lose as a percentage of your original bet over the long run.

If the house edge is 1.41%, the casino expects to win an average of $1.41 every time you bet $100.

If the house edge is 16.66%, the casino expects to win an average of $16.66 every time you bet $100.

Which bet looks like the better bet for the casino?

And which one looks like the better bet for the gambler?

It shouldn’t be hard to make the distinction.

Even the best of the bad bets on the craps table are inferior to the 1.41% or 1.36% you can get from the pass, don’t pass, come, and don’t come bets.

And trust me on this:

You can have PLENTY of fun sticking with the basic bets at the craps table.

Betting Systems Where You Raise and Lower the Size of Your Bets Are Bad Strategies

The classic example of this kind of betting system is the Martingale System, where you double the size of your bets after each loss. When you do this repeatedly, you eventually win back the money you’ve lost along with a profit of one unit.

The problem with a system like the Martingale is that you’ll eventually run into a big enough losing streak that it will wipe out all those small profits and then some.

Most people underestimate how quickly a bet’s size gets when doubling after every loss.

They also overestimate how likely they are to avoid long losing streaks.

If you double a $5 bet once, that’s $10.

But if you run into a losing streak of 8 bets in a row, you’re looking at having to bet $640 to make up for your losses.

Also, every roll of the dice is an independent event. The odds don’t change based on how many times you’ve won or lost in a row.

You might think the probability of losing that 8^th bet is lower than the likelihood of losing the first one, but the truth is that the dice have no memory. They have the same 6 sides, no matter how many times you’ve lost in a row.

Each bet in craps is an independent event, and any betting system will assume that the odds are changing based on how many times in a row you’ve won or lost.

Money Management Strategies Don’t Hurt Anything, but They Won’t Improve Your Odds of Winning, Either

Money management strategies involve having strict gambling discipline about how much of your bankroll you’re willing to risk before quitting the game. They also require you to stop when you’ve won an arbitrary amount of money.

Money management techniques are often used in conjunction with betting systems.

Here’s an example of a money management strategy in craps:

You decide your bankroll for the session is $250, and you’re playing for $5 per roll of the dice.

Your stop-loss limit is $100, so, if your bankroll drops to $150, you must quit the craps session and go do something else.

Your win goal is $250, so once your bankroll gets up to $500, you must quit the game and go do something else.

This kind of strategy might increase your chances of walking away from the game a winner.

But that’s only because a lot of gamblers will just keep playing until they’ve lost their entire stake. They just don’t generally have a lot of sense about that sort of thing.

The Jury’s Out on Dice Setting or Dice Control

I’ve seen multiple reputable gambling writers express interest and some belief that some craps shooters can influence the probability of specific outcomes. I’m skeptical – in the extreme – but I’ll give it an appropriate amount of credence.

The idea is that you hold the dice a specific way – “setting” the dice – then throw with a minimum amount of force – just enough to hit the back wall and eliminate most of the rolling action.

Calculate House Edge Craps

A controlled shooting expert doesn’t have to be perfect. Instead, they’re trying to be like someone who’s playing darts. They improve the probability enough to change the negative expectation on a bet to a positive expectation.

You can buy books and videos explaining how to get an edge at craps this way, but I can’t imagine the amount of practice and record-keeping required to have any confidence in your ability to change the odds.

Imagine if you spent 1000 hours trying to learn how to control the dice and coming up short. Maybe you just don’t have the knack for it.

That doesn’t sound like a good deal to me.

I’d rather learn to count cards in blackjack.

Conclusion

House Edge Craps

Those are the best and the worst of the strategies I know of for playing craps in the casino. I know plenty of people who would disagree with every recommendation I’ve made, but the math behind the game doesn’t lie.

The best strategy is to stick with the bets with the lowest house edge and have as much fun as you can.